EPL Card Week 29: Ride the Hot Hand

Unlike "Fuller House", my return to the EPL was successful, uplifting, and free of grey hair. 2-1 last week but both our + money bets hit, so we finish up 1.6 units with our overall record at 15-4. I'll say that again: 15-4. That's a 79% win rate and we haven't been afraid to pick the dogs. Pretty cool, but in no world is this a sustainable pace. If it were, this post wouldn't be on a janky, free Wix site and my new house would have multiple putting greens.

Alas we go again on the last week before an international break with a abbreviated weekend. Although I'm certain water will find it's level at some point, I'm going to try and stretch this hot streak like Elastigirl because if I've learned one thing in my life, it's:

Luton Town vs Nottingham Forest

Saturday 3/16 @ 10am CT

Our only miss last week was taking the over with Luton in a match that ended 1-1. Meanwhile, Forest have last each of their last 3 matches 1-0. You'd think I'd be a good listener here and take the under, right? Well, when I has a kid and my parents told me not to touch the plugged-in waffle iron because it was hot, I was crying with ice on my burned finger 7 seconds later. I'm strong willed. You don't tell me what to do, not up in here. Luton played in a 7-goal thrilled on Wednesday, and two of Forest's goal-less efforts were against big-six clubs. This is a relegation scrap and a draw does Luton no favors. If they get an early goal, this could be a thriller.

The pick: Over 2.5 -130

Bonus pick because I'm now #PlusSignHunter: Draw +250

Burnley vs Brentford

Saturday 3/16 @ 10am CT

As I said: abbreviated week. The fixture congestion postponements have me in the depths of disgusting football and this is Exhibit A. I was decorating my Christmas tree the last time Burnley won a match and they've been outscored 12-2 over their last 4. Yes, they're at home, but Brentford gave Arsenal a proper scare the last time out and drew against Chelsea before that, and they're getting plus money? I won't watch this bore, but it'll be broadcast on the Calm app if you wish to. Back again with the plus signs here.

The pick: Brentford ML +115

West Ham vs Aston Villa

Sunday 3/17 @ 9am CT

When I first got into English football, it legitimately took me over two years to realize West Ham and Villa were not in fact the same damn team. The colors, the mediocrity, and unfamiliar players all just blended together in my mind. They were basically the Browns and the Bengals of the mid-late 2010s. Both teams bounced back mid-week, reversing poor first legs from their respective European competitions with multi-goal shutouts of their opponents (see what I mean) and are flying high coming into this one. While we picked against Villa last week, we zag here again and back them this week. Their form against mid-tier opposition has been stellar and West Ham have collapsed recently against strong opposition. See you in two weeks!

The pick: Aston Villa ML +145