March Madness Elite 8, Day 1: Gut Check.

While picking every game in the first few rounds has the downside of being unable to select games where you see an edge, the volume of picks makes up for the few where you're flying blind and allows the law of averages to play out. You can write off the strange losers and pump your chest about the winners. In the Elite 8, however, there is nowhere to hide. And boy do I wish there were. I hate all the numbers offered on both of these games today. My most prudent recommendation would be to pass on both. Let me fall on the sword of making picks while you sit back and enjoy stress-free, high-level basketball. You're welcome. I am a Man for Others after all.

A gross 3-3 yesterday thanks to Edey getting away with murder and Creighton not being able to run a single offensive play with competence the entire second half brings us to 42-29 on the tourney. 7 games to go, let's try to get a 50 burger.

Illinois (3) vs UCONN (1)

UCONN -8.5 O/U 154.5

UCONN look to be at the same spot they were last year where they blew out every team and cut down the nets. I don't give the Illini any shot to win this one, but 8.5 is A LOT of juice to swallow. But do you really want to bet against UCONN at this point? They've covered in 3 straight and boat race teams in the second half. I'm gonna stomach the number, but a smarter play would be to wait until it drops to -4.5/-5.5 mid-game when Illinois goes on one of their inevitable runs. As for the total, although UCONN's defense has been solid, they really have not played a competent offense yet. Illinois put up 72 on the best defense in the country while shooting terribly from the charity stripe and below their average from the field. I think they can creep towards 80 in this one and send it over.

The Pick: UCONN -8.5, Over 154.5

Clemson (6) vs Alabama (4)

Bama -4.5 O/U 163.5

Over. Didn't need to see the number, didn't need to do an ounce of research. I see Bama and I take Over. I'm a simple guy and it's worked so far. Plus it's also way more fun. On the side selection, I'm sick and tired of this Clemson team. But I still do not trust this Alabama team. Even though they beat arguably the second best team in the country two days ago, I feel like they're due. However, I don't think it's in this one. Bama wins comfortably here, ends the Clemson miracle run, and then we flip it and take UCONN to stomp the Tide in the Final Four. Chess not checkers, ladies and gents.

The Pick: Alabama -4.5, Over 163.5

Running March Madness Record: 42-29