March Madness Round 1, Day 1: And Here, We... Go
- Joe Kiley
- Mar 20, 2024
- 6 min read
Referring to the First Four as "the appetizer" implies that Thursday begins the Main Course. And I'd guess that'd be accurate if by Main Course you meant Joey Chestnut's plate at the Nathan's hot dog eating contest. It's here. It's finally, effing, HERE. The first of the two best days of the entire sports year. We start early, we go fast, we end late, and we do it all again the next day. A LOT to get through here so let's jump right in.
(Side note, Colorado just finished as I finished writing. We went 2-0 yesterday, LFG)
Michigan State (9) vs Mississippi State (8)
Michigan State -1.5, O/U 130.5
We kick-off with an absolute banger. This should be a game between two battle tested teams. The fighting Mike Leach's (RIP) beat Tennessee twice, but also lost their fair share of head scrathers, and the same can be said about Michigan State. The old saying goes "January, February, Izzo, April", which implies betting against Michigan State this time of year is a fool's errand. Well, then call me a fool. I'm taking the Bulldogs as a dog for my boy Coach Leach and because I don't think Michigan State can hang with them for a full 40 minutes.
The Pick: Mississippi State +100
Duquesne (11) vs BYU (6)
BYU -9.5, O/U 142.5
By the time this game tips off, I'm setting the over under for the number of times you've heard "Duquesne" pronounced incorrectly in the office at 4.5. You've also heard at least two guys on your sales team make some borderline inappropriate Mormon jokes about BYU being a 6-seed because they can't play on Sundays. My opinion? Don't correct either of them, let it go, we have so many more games to focus on. Duquesne has no business being here, BYU should be a higher seed. This one should be over quickly.
The Pick: BYU -9.5
Akron (14) vs Creighton (3)
Creighton -12.5, O/U 140.5
I haven't seen a single person give Akron a chance at an upset here, which scares me. Creighton has serious Final Four potential, so if you're seeing too many 1-seeds in your Final Four, look at the Bluejays from Omaha. Also, $10 to you if you knew Creighton was in Omaha. I'm backing off the spread because that's too many, and both teams can score.
The Pick: Over 140.5
Long Beach State (15) vs Arizona (2)
Arizona -20.5, O/U 163.5
I had like 3 Seinfeld jokes percolating for this write up, and then the Long Beach State coach walked into his press conference and made them himself. What an ass. Can't blame him though. If you don't know, he was fired earlier this season, agreed to finish the year, and lead the team to the tournament. And if you don't see the Seinfeld jokes writing themselves, I can't help you. Arizona is good, but every now and then they look terrible. It's too weird of a situation in Long Beach for me to ignore.
The Pick: Long Beach State +20.5
Wagner (16) vs North Carolina (1)
UNC -24.5, O/U 133.5
I don't know how Wagner held on to win on Tuesday. They are going to get WORKED. If this is the first game of the day that gets you points in your pool, pro tip: Burn the bracket. You don't have it this year, just enjoy the ride. This game will be over by halftime so I'm also looking at the total to keep me engaged throughout.
The Pick: UNC -24.5 AND Over 133.5
Morehead State (11) vs Illinois (3)
Illinois -11.5, O/U 146.5
Morehead State is a very trendy upset pick here, and I'd venture a guess that the, erm, subtle innuendo is tempting some of the casuals. Personally? I don't see it, but Illinois is NOT great on defense so truly anything can happen. Morehead does not score a ton, but when they play a fast-paced team like Illinois, they can light it up.
The Pick: Over 146.5
Oregon (11) vs South Carolina (6)
Oregon -1.5, O/U 133.5
This is one of those weird March Madness games where the higher seed is favored. Although Kathy will brag about calling the upset in here bracket while you walk out of the office, do me a favor? Let her live, she needs this moment. Don't tell her Oregon was favored and it's technically not an upset. Everyone deserves a victory this time of year, especially Kathy.
The Pick: Oregon -1.5 AND Over 133.5
Nevada (10) vs Dayton (7)
Nevada -1.5, O/U 136.5
Well, what do you know? another Kathy special. But this one is more understandable. Dayton threw out a stinker about once a month this year, but was pretty solid outside of that. It just so happens their one for March was in the conference championship game, so my guess is recency bias is playing into Nevada being favored. You know the drill, don't fall for it
The Pick: Dayton +1.5
Colorado State (10) vs Texas (7)
Texas -2.5, O/U 144.5
Kudos to you if you watched CSU beat Virginia on Tuesday, that was a bore. Luckily, this will be different. Texas consistently puts up well over 70 a game and tends not to stumble against inferior opponents. Just like their football team, they only crumble once their fanbase reaches maximum hope. And I love it. Horns Down. (But they win this one)
The Pick: Texas -2.5
Oakland (14) vs Kentucky (3)
Kentucky -13.5, O/U 161.5
Oakland plays at a slower pace, and Kentucky has put up triple digits multiple times this year. A true David vs Goliath if David was Dodgers-era Robin Ventura and Goliath was Usian Bolt. Although Robin Ventura was not afraid of a fight? He'll lose this one though.
The Pick: Kentucky -13.5
McNeese (12) vs Gonzaga (5)
Gonzaga -6.5, O/U 149.5
McNeese is a trendy pick here, especially in the classic 5-12 matchup. Gonzaga are being discounted for what exactly? Having a bad December and not being able to beat St Mary's? I mean that's not great, but St Mary's is weird (watch them) and December was last year. McNeese on the other hand boasts wins against Mississippi University for Women, Randy Moss Driving School, and College of Biblical Studies. Surprisingly, I only made one of those up. Give ol' Mark Few a couple beers and let him drive... this game across the finish line.
The Pick: Over 149.5, Gonzaga -6.5
South Dakota State (15) vs Iowa State (2)
Iowa State -15.5, O/U 135.5
Iowa State is one of the best defensive teams in the Tournament. Their offense is not great, but they don't need to be. South Dakota State has shot 800 3's this year, but turn it over a lot, meaning they could pull off a W just as easily as losing by 30. It's March though, blowouts are not fun. Let the boys shoot.
The Pick: South Dakota State +15.5
Saint Peter's (15) vs Tennessee (2)
Tennessee -21.5, O/U 129.5
No. Just don't. It won't happen again. We hear Saint Peter's and all think the same thing. Don't give in. Tennessee won't underestimate them, but will they cover 21.5? I'm not so sure. Saint Peters plays in a low-scoring conference, but significantly upped their scoring two years ago during their run. Tennessee finished the season scoring significantly less than they normally had. Look for both teams to emphasize offense.
The Pick: Over 129.5
NC State (11) vs Texas Tech (6)
Texas Tech -4.5, O/U 145.5
Nobody is hotter than NC State right now. But have they cooled off? Probably a bit. Texas Tech have beat multiple tournament teams (Baylor and BYU) already this month, and faced a much tougher road. The Red Raiders will not be phased. We backed Mike Leach's last school, and we'll back the school that made him famous here. I don't like 4.5 though, so I'd swallow some to get it tighter and maybe consider moneyline
The Pick: Texas Tech -4.5
Samford (13) vs Kansas (4)
Kansas -7.5, O/U 153.5
Samford are fun. They run, they shoot, they will press A TON and be flat out annoying to play against. Kansas is injured significantly injured, so I love the upset even more. Also the thought of a school that was founded strictly for alumni to mumble and trick people into thinking they went to Stanford could beat Kansas is too funny.
The Pick: Samford +7.5 (Bonus: Samford Outright Winner +230)
Drake (10) vs Washington State (7)
Drake -1.5, O/U 137.5
Tucker DeVries of Drake has some unfinished business in the tournament, look for him to shoot and shoot often. Wazzu is a great story breaking their tourney-less streak in the last year of the PAC 12, but the conference dies it's slow, painful death with Wazzu's exit in this one. The Tucker Revenge Tour starts now.
The Pick: Drake -1.5
Holy Crap. We made it. We go again tomorrow.
Running March Madness record: 3-2
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