March Madness Round 1 Day 2: It's a Big Squall

"It's just a little squall, they come on you fast, and they leave you fast." - Kurt Russell in Captain Ron circa 1992.

While "little" is the exact opposite of the first weekend of March Madness, the sentiment holds. We enter Day 2 with the realization that we are halfway through the 16-game-4-TV-at-once days, and will soon be able to follow all the action on one screen like a normal human being. But until then, fire-up the quad box again, bring in the extra TV, set up your iPad, and let's enjoy another day of wall-to-wall Hoops. Let's sail into Day 2.

[9] Baylor vs [8] Mississippi State

Mississippi St-1.5, Total 144.5

After all the dog talk yesterday, it'd fitting we open Friday with ANOTHER freakin Bulldog. I can't pick another dog mascot, can I? Well, looking at their opponent, Baylor come in with a very similar resume to West Virginia, who were famously snubbed. They play good teams very close, but do not have a significant win since Kansas on Feb 1. They've lost 6 straight Quad 1 games, whereas Mississippi State and their obnoxious cowbells have 7 wins over tournament teams. I like Mississippi's state prior success in this spot, and their guard Josh Hubbard could take over this game. Well, damnit, another Bulldog gif incoming....

Gotcha....

The pick: Mississippi St -1.5

[15] Robert Morris vs [2] Alabama

Alabama -22.5, Total 165.5

Last year, blindly betting Alabama overs at 170+ was arguably the most fun you can possibly have while turning a profit. This year, they still score a lot, and we may see some crazy totals depending on their matchups later in the tournament. Yes, I'm not even considering an upset here. Robert Morris are the WORST March Madness team ever. Literally. They are 0-8 in this tournament, no one else is worse. Make that 0-9 ASAP. Alabama have put up triple digits seven (7!) times this season, but have not always played defense in those games. I don't want to worry about a backdoor cover in a 94-69 game with 2 minutes left.

The pick: Over 165.5

[14] Lipscomb vs [3] Iowa State

Iowa State -14.5, Total 143.5

Lipscomb are a team no one if giving any thought to, and that might be because we're not quite sure how to pronounce "Lipscomb", are less sure where they're located, and have no idea what their mascot is. (It's in Nashville, and they're the Bison). They are an overall mediocre team, but elite at not turning the ball over and shooting: free-throws, three-pointers, and efficiency. Iowa State are clearly the better team, they are 3-4 in their last 7 and star player Keshon Gilbert is out for the tournament. I'm not gonna get crazy and call freakin Lipscomb as an upset, but it wouldn't be the most shocking result. Regardless, the number is too big. Give me the Bison from Nashville, you know, where Bison typically live.

The pick: Lipscomb +14.5

Full disclosure, the WiFi has been down all night, just came back on, so gonna power through the rest to get it done on time. Apologies for the upcoming brevity, lack of humor, and typos.

[12] Colorado State vs [5] Memphis

Colorado State -1.5, Total 146.5

Calling Colorado State in your bracket or in the office is not an upset, so if they pull this off, don't parade around like you're some clairvoyant. However, if Lisa in marketing wants to get excited for picking the Rams correctly because she's an LA Rams fan, let her enjoy the moment. I'm surprised the total is where it is since both teams average more towards 150 in Quad 1 and 2 games. I'll stay away from the 12-seed-favored spread. Over.

The pick: Over 146.5

[16] Mount St Mary's vs [1] Duke

Duke -32.5, Total 141.5

Mount St Mary's average 53 points in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games, so it makes sense to think they'll end up somewhere there or slightly below against arguably the best team in the country. So the question becomes, can duke approach 90 to hit the over? Maybe. But the way I see it, there's 1-2 more points of value on the spread, with or without Flagg.

The pick: Duke -32.5

[10] Vanderbilt vs [7] St. Mary's

St. Mary's -4.5, Total 135.5

This number is way bigger than I thought given the historical under performance of St Mary's and their ultra-slow style of play not working out in the tournament. Being able to crawl at a snail's pace and play pesky defense negates somewhat of a talent advantage, but tends to fall flat when they play highly-skilled teams. The question is, is Vanderbilt good enough to overcome the style differential? I think so, but the line feels like a trap. I do believe they will fall into a slower style and keep this below the total regardless of the result.

The pick: Under 135.5

[11] North Carolina vs [6] Ole Miss

UNC -1.5, Total 155.5

Tar heel fans will say their win on Wednesday justifies their selection in this field of 68. It does not. They still did not earn this bid, and even a run all the way through this region will not change that. Although recency bias has powered them to being the favorite, I think that provides value here on the Rebels. They are 8-10 in Quad 1 and most importantly, not a Mountain West team. This is a huge step up for Carolina, and I'll back the team with a better proven record in these situations.

The pick: Ole Miss +1.5

[13] Grand Canyon vs [4] Maryland

Maryland -10.5, Total 150.5

Most upsets in March consist of the lower seed building a lead, halting a few runs, and hanging on at the end. Given the Maryland are the 6th highest scoring first-half team and make the 12th-most shots of any team, I do not see them facing an early deficit or enduring a long scoreless streak. Give me the Crab 5 in an EASY win.

The pick: Maryland -10.5

[16] Norfolk vs [1] Florida

Florida -28.5, Total 153.5

Florida are the hottest team in the country. They averaged 95 points per game in SEC tournament en route to winning the strongest conference we've seen in years. So if they can put up 95 in the SEC, what can they do against Norfolk? I do not know. But I do know that opponents scored over 60 in 7 of Florida's 10 Quad 3/4 games, so there should be enough scoring to hit this over easily.

The pick: Over -153.5

[14] Troy vs [3] Kentucky

Kentucky -11.5, Total 152.5

The 11.5 number was lower than I expected given I've heard absolutely 0 upset talk when it comes to Troy, so I dove into the data to try and see what I am missing. Maybe it's because they are the 4th best offensive rebounding team in the country? Or because their first-half defense is top 20? Those are great indicators for success in March. But if you look closer, they also give up a TON of offensive rebounds, and their defense gets significantly worse in the second half. Those are BAD indicators of upset potential. I don't see it. Give me Mark Pope and the Cats.

The pick: Kentucky -11.5

[10] New Mexico vs [7] Marquette

Marquette -3.5, Total 153.5

Most Catholics in the midwest should be fired up about this game... Oh they're not? Sorry, I forgot that Notre Dame is the only school on the entire planet we accept using religion as an excuse for fandom. While on the theme of taking shots, Marquette takes A LOT of shot. 3's, long 2's, lay-ups, you name it, they shoot a lot. But they do not make them at an even above-average rate. Add to this that New Mexico are top 15 in defensive rebounds and get to the free throw line at an elite level? I think the lobos may be howling here.

The pick: New Mexico +3.5

[14] Akron vs [4] Arizona

Arizona -14.5, Total 167.5

Many times, the NCAA tournament provides unique, stylistic clashes in the early rounds of the NCAA tournament. This is not one of those games. Both these teams play fast, score a lot, and are nothing special on defense. This is the highest total of the day by a wide margin, and with Akron being a significantly better 3-point shooting team than Arizona, I'm gonna bet on a few of those to drop. Strap in, this has the making of the games we dream of in March.

The pick: Over 167.5 AND Akron +14.5

[9] Oklahoma vs [8] UCONN

Uconn -5.5, Total 147.5

No pundit, podcaster, friend, or nerd in accounting I've talked to is picking Oklahoma in this one. A strange situation for an 8-9 matchup, so I'll think long and hard before following the crowd. Free throw percentage and 3pt defense are the only metrics that Oklahoma are elite. Not great, especially when considering Uconn are not a 3-point reliant team and are elite at avoiding fouls. This is a terrible draw for the Sooners, and the SEC loses another team in this one.

The pick: Uconn -5.5

[11] Xavier vs [6] Illinois

Illinois -3.5, Total 160.5

Illinois are one of the most inconsistent teams in the country. They scored 106 vs Iowa only to put up 65 on Maryland the next day. When they win, they win big, and when they lose, it's very ugly. Xavier on the other hand, has been consistently improving their scoring over the past 2 months. They're an elite 3-point shooting team, and the pace of this game negates many of their mediocre offensive counting statistics. I'm not sure Xavier can pull through, but I will think they score enough to have a shot.

The pick: Over 160.5

[15] Bryant vs [2] Michigan State

Michigan State -17, Total 152.5

Michigan State dropping a stinker in the first round would not be unheard of. But not this time. The only metric Bryant are not 100th or worse in is Field Goal Attempts, not makes, attempts. There's an Angel Reese joke here, but I'll let you make that... There no sign Bryant can hang with the Spartans, and -checks calendar- it is Izzo 21st today.

The pick: Michigan State -17

[12] Liberty vs [5] Oregon

Oregon -6.5, Total 139.5

The final game of the two-day marathon, and holy crap I can't believe we made it through. A 3-hour plane flight with no WiFi combined with a house WiFi outage until past 9pm last night brought a STRUGGLE to keep up with the action. Also a struggle to do any final research and write down any picks. But a 6am alarm on vacation and some confused friends later, we've made it to the end. Can't wait to go again for two more days, but the scrambled brain of picking 16 games at once has come to an end. Cannot wait to absolutely HUNT TVs while out on vacation and snipe scores for the early window. And after .500 yesterday, we need some wins to carry profit into the weekend. Let's ride.

Oh ya, almost forgot, Sco Ducks.

The pick: Oregon -6.5

March Madness Record: 14-11