March Madness Round 2 Day 1: Hold Your Breath

After an average 14-11 start to the tournament, the picks got hot. A 12-5 friday brings the record to 26-16 heading in to Day 2. Whether it's a strong start to the betting weekend, or a top-place in your bracket pool, a lot of people would be "feeling nicey" at this point. However, I would urge caution as things are about to get nuts.

We all thought this would be one of the chalkiest March's in recent history and that has proved to be correct so far. Also, the first round means essentially nothing in your bracket pool as each game doubles in value as me progress, so don't get ahead of your skis there. With A LOT of ball left and almost all the good teams still in it, things have the potential to get nuts quickly. So, as the late Keith Jackson would famously say, "Hold your breath". Let's get in to round 2.

[12] McNeese vs [4] Purdue

Purdue -6.5, Total 142.5

One of the few upsets in Round 1, McNeese simply annoyed the hell out of Clemson's offense and held a comfortable double-digit lead until the final minute. Purdue, while a great shooting team percentage wise, do not rebound very well or create a lot of shots. They've struggled in slower, defensive battles this year, and that is exactly what they will get. In the year of chalk, if McNeese learn to finish a game, they could be one of the few cinderellas.

The Pick: McNeese +6.5 AND Under 142.5

[10] Arkansas vs [2] St. John's

St. John's -7.5, Total 144.5

This is the game of the day. With Pitino citing "getting Cal off his resume" as a primary reason for returning to coaching, it's safe to say there is no love lost between these two legendary coaches. It's essentially the Italian super bowl. Expect tons of hand gestures from the sidelines and a few track suits in the stands. On the court, though, St John's inability to start fast or shoot the 3 all year gave me a ton of concern in picking them to make a deep run this year. The good news for them, Arkansas rank in the mid-200s in 3 pointers made and attempted and do not excel in any defensive metric. So a big early lead looks unlikely. Look for St John's to slowly chip away at this number and move on to the Sweet 16 by double-digits.

The Pick: St Johns -7.5

[5] Michigan vs [4] Texas A&M

A&M -2.5, Total 140.5

Arguably the two most insufferable alumni and fanbases left in this tournament meet up in the second round. If it were up to me, both would lose in embarrassing fashion and I'd laugh myself to sleep scrolling their message board complaints about how they need more NIL money despite having literally the most. Michigan turned the ball over what felt like every possession and still put up 68 in a win on Thrusday, whereas A&M had very little trouble with hot-shooting Yale. This will be a clash of styles with the Wolf-Goldin duo for Michigan banging inside and A&M's guards flying around the perimeter. I think both find ways to score, and in the slim hopes of keeping a double-loss a possibility, I'll shy away from picking a winner.

The Pick: Over 140.5

[11] Drake vs [3] Texas Tech

Tech -6.5, Total 126.5

A total this low in the second-round is a rarity with no team named "Virginia". But our second of two shots for a cinderella run today lie in the hands of Drake. The team of former D2 players face off against one the best good-bad teams in recent memory. Tech have experience (and success) in playing this style thanks to facing off against Houston twice in conference, so I don't expect them to be phased much at all. Escaping a slow start and building an early lead is all that's needed to punch their ticket to the sweet 16 for the Red Raiders, and with JT Toppin and Elijah Hawkins heating up at the right time, that's exactly what they do. Drake will not go down without a fight, though, so expect the fouling and three-chucking to start earlier than normal in this one.

The Pick: Tech -6.5 AND Over 126.5

[8] Creighton vs [1] Auburn

Auburn -8.5, Total 150.5

Now is where things could get nuts. Nobody has Creighton doing any damage in this tournament and an Auburn loss would eliminate 10 to 25 percent of your bracket pool. This is squeaky-bum time for sure if you have the Tigers taking home the title. Luckily for the Tigers, Creighton is unlikely to shoot 46% from 3 two games in a row, and with only 11 fouls in their first game, I'm concerned about the Jays' lack of aggressiveness. Auburn's win vs Alabama St was not impressive at all, especially considering their struggles coming into this tournament. However, the time to ramp it up is now, and I think the Tigers urgency and Creighton smelling an upset bring points both ways in a tight one.

The Pick: Creighton +8.5 AND Over 150.5

[6] BYU vs [3] Wisconsin

Wisconsin -1.5, Total 155.5

From Hold Your Breath to Catch Your Breath. After sweating out the early slate, this game is sure to be a track meet up and down and one you want to be conscious about your bathroom break timing. Both sides can fill it up from anywhere and believe themselves to be the better team. Although not the best storyline of the day by any stretch, this could become the best on-court game of the day when we look back. Wisconsin's size advantage and and superior gaur play give them the edge here though, despite not having any players whose relative invented awesome breakfast foods.

The Pick: Wisconsin -1.5 AND Over 155.5

[8] Gonzaga vs [1] Houston

Houston -5.5, Total 139.5

Oh boy did I catch a ton of shit from my Jesuit brethren for picking incorrectly against the Zags in round 1. I promise that won't happen this time. Gonzaga, in fairness, are impossible to forecast. They are a top-10 team in predictive metrics, but mediocre at best on the eye test (pre-Georgia). Unfortunately, I don't see any evidence from their play that leads me to believe they can pull the upset here (sorry stat nerds). Houston will roll EASY in this one. I promised I wouldn't miss on the Zags pick and I won't. Back to Spokane with ya.

The Pick: Houston -5.5

[7] UCLA vs [2] Tennessee

Tennessee -4.5, Total 130.5

Well Well Well... would you look who it is to close out the day... The gutty wittle bwuins. Hey UCLA fans, I told you it'd be easy on Thursday and I'm pretty good at handicapping middle-tier programs like yourselves. This game, though, pits a school marked by on of the best basketball coaches in history versus a new Big Ten team from LA with one championship in 50 years. Unfortunately (well, fortunately), I am already prepping my Mick Cronin Bingo card for what he will complain about in the post-game press conference after getting waxed in this one. Gimmie the Bluetick Coonhounds again.

The Pick: Tennessee -4.5

March Madness Record: 26-16