March Madness Sweet 16 Day 1: Chalk Talk

For the 4 people who noticed, there were no picks last Sunday, and to you, I apologize. A mix of travel plans, poor WiFi, and prior commitments did not allow a window to chart out 8 games with confidence. Which is also unfortunate because we were hot. Well, luke warm... A 7-5 Saturday brought our record to 33-21 on the tournament and 5 straight blogs without a losing record. Shoutout bossman Dan for the $7k parlay hit from tailing the blog. That is why we love March.

I know this has been the chalkiest tournament in over a decade and gambling is essentially luck, but I'm starting to think I know ball. Some may argue the chalk factor has lead to an uneventful first weekend with no Cinderellas, but the plus side is every game from here on out has the potential to be the game of the tournament. With that being said, though, I can talk myself into almost any bet on the board and will need to dig deep to keep the streak going.

[6] BYU vs [2] Alabama

Alabama -5.5, Total 200... JK, 175.5

The first game of the Sweet 16 is my pick to be the best game of this round. BYU is scorching hot, rank in the top 5 nationally in half a dozen metrics in March, have the Tater-Tot prince bangin' 3's, and are putting on quite the show under first-year coach Kevin Young. If they can pull off the upset, they will advance to their first Elite 8 since the year their coach was born. Alabama, on the other hand, have made the tournament every year under Nate Oats, including the Final Four last year. I joked at the total being 200, but honestly, I might've taken the over at that number, so I'll definitely take it at 175.5. I'll take the Mormons too (or "Mo-Mo's" as Dodge Ward would say) as I default to backing the hotter shooting team in March. Let's hope for a 102-100 finish and an epic start to the Sweet 16.

The Pick: BYU +5.5 AND Over 175.5

[4] Maryland vs [1] Florida

Florida -6.5, Total 157.5

Maryland have given us the best moment so far with Derik Queen's walk-off bank shot. See what I did there? Surprisingly, this is only Maryland's second Sweet 16 appearance since 2003, whereas Florida have cut down the nets twice in that span. The Crab 5 contribute the highest % of their team's points of any starting 5 left, so they will go as far as they can take them. For the Gators, they were the hottest team in the country and Walter Clayton Jr. has been, IMO, the best player in the field. A Senior... Guard... Shooting 53% from 3 in the tournament... it's my 3 favorite things all wrapped into one. Although UCONN pushing them to the brink gives me A LOT of pause, I HAVE to dance with the girl who brought me. I've backed experience, guard play, and shooting all tournament and Florida's three best players check all those boxes. 6.5 is a big pill to swallow, but I'm a man of principle. Part of the ship, part of the crew. Chomp Chomp.... sorry Scott.

The Pick: Florida -6.5

[4] Arizona vs [1] Duke

Duke -9.5, Total 154.5

Can Caleb Love do it again? After ending Coach K's career and sending Paolo Banchero to the NBA with an L, the Duke-killer is coming off a stand-out performance vs Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship... um, I mean Round of 32. However, he is liable to throw up a stinker every now and then. Two solid performances in a row have been hard to come by this year for Caleb, and as the heartbeat of the team, he will need one to get past Duke. The Blue Devils rolled Baylor and are now the favorites to win it all. I don't see an early exit here, but 9.5 is a lot to cover and given Caleb's hatred for Duke, I don't see the Cats going down without a massive fight. I'm staying far away from a near double-digit spread and trusting two great coaches, Caleb, and Cooper Flagg to go all out and push this over.

The Pick: Over 154.5

[10] Arkansas vs [3] Texas Tech

Texas Tech -5.5, Total 148.5

After starting SEC play 0-5, no one thought we'd see the Razorbacks in this spot. Johnny Cinderella has his team in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019 and it turns out an underdog mentality, his leading scorer to get injured, and a Tyson chicken-funded NIL budget was all he needed to do so. Good news for Cal, though, is said leading scorer, Thiero, will likely return for this game. In the white jerseys, Texas Tech struggled with UNCW in their first game and didn't look crazy impressive knocking off Drake in their second. I think this spot sets up perfectly for the Razorbacks, the storyline, and my "guard play in March" mantra. Woo Pig.

The Pick: Arkansas +5.5

March Madness Record: 33-21