March Madness Sweet 16, Day 2: Burns, Bulldogs, and Blue Devils.

4-2 yesterday, but more impressive was we finally hit an under. Being a stubborn, grudge-driven man does in fact pay off as our other bogey bet, going against Iowa State, finally paid off as well. My record stands 39-26 now, which means I sit here on the second Friday of the tournament already guaranteed a winning record for March Madness if I were to only make one pick per game. I could play it safe, pick a side a game, mail it in, and go into Them Masters as a winner. Buuuuut that's no fun. This is a gambling blog after all, so we'll let it ride where we see winners.

NC State (11) vs Marquette (2)

Marquette -7.5 O/U 150.5

Both of these teams were the definition of survive and advance in the round of 32 as they each barely scraped by inferior opponents. Neither team shoots the 3 incredibly well, and the guard play scale tips slightly to Marquette with Kam and Tyler. I'm confident in neither Marquette's ability to pull away nor in NC State having enough gas in the tank after their past two weeks. One has got to give though, and I think whoever does stumble will stumble enough to keep this under the total. We may be terrible with Under calls this tourney, but we are 1-0 in our last 1. "Utah, gimmie two!"

The pick: Under 150.5

Gonzaga (5) vs Purdue (1)

Purdue -5.5 O/U 154.5

This might be a really dumb pick. But I like the underdog Bulldogs here. Yes, Purdue have molly-whopped their first two opponents so far. And yes, Edey has looked like the best player in the country. But is curb-stomping Grambling and Utah State that impressive? I get that they have beaten Alabama, Arizona, Illinois (2x), and Wisconsin (2x), but all six of those Ws were by singe-digits. They seem to always keep in tight when they face a top-end team. Now is 5.5 too tight to ask for? Maybe. With the season on the line I could see late fouling producing a gnarly back-door cover that'd make me puke. But hey, then I can at least say I was right and got screwed rather than I got lucky.

The pick: Gonzaga +5.5

Duke (4) vs Houston (1)

Houston -4.5 O/U 134.5

To my surprise, this line has moved in Houston's favor since opening at 3.5. I did not think they could cover against a very good A&M team and I was right. I have no reason to believe they're going to win comfortably here. Houston feast on bad teams, but tend to struggle against high-end offenses. But this is Duke. Good Ol' loafers-no-socks, dress-shirts-tucked-into-shorts, sunglasses-with-Croakies, walking-HR-nightmare, Duke. Sometimes, though, the best way to shut up a pompous dork is to give them nothing to be upset about. They can't say their favorite line "I told you so" if you gave the opinion first. So shut the hell up, Duke. I picked you first. You're still the least-like members at your Country Club.

The pick: Duke -4.5, Over 134.5

Creighton (3) vs Tennessee (2)

Tennessee -3.5 O/U 143.5

It's a shame one of these teams has to win. You can make good money betting on either of them to choke in March, but when they play each other? Total crapshoot. This is the Sweet-16 version of the NBA half-time baby race: There is no rhyme or reason as to who wins and it will involve a lot of ugly-screaming white women. Can you trust Creighton? A team who beat UCONN by 19 and then lost to St John's by 14 in back-to-back games? Can your trust Tennessee? A school who has been a walking punchline of disappointment since Peyton Manning left? NO. Neither. This game will be chaos, and the only consistency I see here is Creighton's penchant for hucking triples. I think those shots go in. Gimmie the over. Gimmie Omaha.

The pick: Creighton +3.5, Over 143.5

Running March Madness Record: 39-26