July 9 Premier League Card

It's day 2,378 of the COVID induced lockdown, which means I'm about 47 days late on making another post (I'll check my math later). With no baseball yet, the college football season in doubt, and half the NBA sitting out, I've been forced into watching endless hours of soccer and now Formula 1. I'm now only three more hair products in my medicine cabinet away from being eligible for an EU passport.

The majority of my focus has been in the Premier League, where the matches are practically daily. As with any new sport, I find it impossible to watch more than 3 games and not have the confidence of your boss' 4 year-old son interrupting every Zoom meeting to believe I can accurately handicap each one. Here's what I like for Thursday and a future bet.

Thursday July 9

AFC Bournemouth v Tottenham

Bournemouth are 4 points behind with a game in hand in their fight for survival in the Prem. Their defense is poor and their ability to score is even worse, I expect them to park the bus and pray for a point or a miracle opportunity on the counter attack. In the opposing dugout, Jose Mourinho likes to score goals just about as much as Mike Leach likes to run the ball on 3rd down. His Spurs side have netted 2 goals or less in 23 of their last 25 matches in all competitions. They've scored more than 1 goal only once since the restart. This has 1-0 or 2-0 in Tottenham's favor written all over it.

The pick: UNDER 2.5 at +105.

Aston Villa v Manchester United

Since Bruno Fernandes took the field for the first time in a United shirt, they've collected the most points in the Premier League. Bruno may not be a household name, but he's creating a ton of offense to make up for a lovable coach with minimal talent. Think of him as a Graham Harrell to Ole Gunnar Worcestershire's Clay Helton. After opening the restart with a 1-1 draw against Tottenham, they've outscored their opponents 13-3 in the previous 4 matches. Aston Villa have scored a whole 2 goals since the restart. This one should not be close.

The pick: Man U -1.5 at -109

BONUS PICK: Man U and Tottenham ML parlay at +126.

Inter Milan v Hellas Verona

Quick trip to Italy to round out the card. Verona have netted 2 or more goals in 3 of their 5 matches since the restart and every Inter match since the restart has seen at least 3 goals scored. If that's not enough, both squads seem to posses the temper of Bill O'Rielly with a broken teleprompter and have a knack for picking up red cards.

The pick: OVER 2.5 at -131.

*If -131 is too much juice, not a bad idea to hope for a goal-less first 10/15 minutes to bring down the over and.... "DO IT LIVE, F*** IT!"

Europa League

As mentioned before, Manchester United are a different side since the restart. Their biggest threat in the Europa League with 16 teams remaining are Wolves (+475), Inter Milan(+475), and Bayern Leverkusen (+450). I'd take the United side I see right now against any of those 3, especially with fan-less stadiums neutralizing the threat of hostile environments typical of this competition.

The pick: Man U to WIN Europa League at +225