Week 1: CFB Kickoff

The first edition of the weekly college football betting guide.

Appalachian St vs Penn State -24

Although the Nittany Lions lost Saquon Barkley, his successor Miles Sanders is ready to take the reigns. Although he’s no Barkley, Miles averaged 6.7 yards per carry over the past two seasons and seen significant time in kick return. Trace McSorley is my Heisman pick this year (bonus pick alert!), and he is ready to make a statement. Happy Valley will be electric, and they’ll win by 40.

Michigan (Even) vs Notre Dame

Harbaugh has a lot to prove this year. A season-opening loss would bring Mr. Khaki pants to an 8-8 record over his last 16 games, and inch him a closer to the hot seat in the eyes of alumni. The Wolverines finally have a mature, capable quarterback in Shea Patterson, something they have missed in recent years. As always, Notre Dame is overrated in the preseason, and they have already started classes, whereas Michigan has not. Touchdown Jesus has some bigger fish to fry this weekend too (@PopeFrancis), so I’m taking the maize and blue on the even moneyline.

Cincinnati vs UCLA Under 63.5

Both schools a returning the exact same number of starters on both sides of the ball, are starting new quarterbacks, are some of the youngest teams in the country, and are lead by new head coaches. UCLA has a history of opening in weird ways. Both teams will be taking it slower and adjusting to a lot of new faces in new places. UCLA hasn’t started classes, so the always-empty Rose Bowl will be even more of a low-energy ghost town. I’m taking the under, but if you’re looking for a winner, Bearcats +15 is not bad.

The USC Outlook:

USC (-26) vs UNLV, O/U 63.5

Analysis: As with most games Week 1, USC’s season opener is surrounded by a litany of unanswered questions. The Trojan offense lost their top receiver and running back to the NFL draft, and of course Sam Darnold. With should-be-high-school-senior J.T. Daniels making his debut at quarterback and his former Mater Dei teammate Aman Ra St. Brown assumed to see significant action, the Trojan offense has unlimited upside, but also potential for significant growing pains. On defense, the men of Troy are returning the best linebacker duo in the conference in Cam Smith and Porter Gustin, and significant experience in the secondary. However, they lineup this week against UNLV team that was all over the map last season. Their 5-7 record was highlighted by a mind-boggling upset at the hands of Howard in week 1, and an unlikely road win against eventual MWC champs Fresno State. The Rebels have improved their record by one win per-season under coach Tony Sanchez’s first three years, so betting the kid’s college fund on a 6-6 record this year wouldn’t be the worst idea you’ve had. The Rebel defense has been absolutely abysmal the past three years under Sanchez, but a new coordinator and the majority of their personnel returning provides reason assume improvement. On the field, UNLV are lead by redshirt-Sophomore Armani Rogers who checks in at 6’5”, 225 and flashed some serious potential last year with his arm and on the ground. Given USC’s history against signal-callers of a similar build, Rogers could pose some issues.

Pick: As a pure-bread Trojan, I’m going to take the boys and the points. However, as a layperson, I’d say this game is a no-bet. Too many variables.

The “Addict” Pick

Old Dominion vs Liberty Over 58

Analysis: It’s Liberty’s first season in FBS, their QB goes by his middle name of “Buckshot”, and they beat Baylor last year. I could not stay away from this pick. They open at home, so I expect a hostile environment. ODU should win this game, but Buckshot and Liberty’s up-tempo offense will not go down without a fight. I’m taking the over.